Churchill on Vagaries of War

The fellows over at The American Thinker posted this quote just yesterday but I can no longer find it. So, I looked elsewhere; found it over at Wikipedia's Wikiquote for Churchill (a very handy feature it appears). The context for their quoting this bit was the recent criticisms of Rumsfeld (and continuing ones of Bush) by the "arm-chair generals".

* Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.
- Roving Commission: My Early Life (1930)

Churchill's observation seems to me to be not only an additional consideration before jumping into war, but also the context in which denizens of a modern democracy should think of how a war is prosecuted by its leaders. That is to say, war is not, has not, will never be a phenomenom that is managed like inflation, the price of oil, the Stock Market, or any other part of our life that our foresight, ingenuity, and experience have slowly and progressively insulated us from Fortune's ill winds. The expectation that the Comander-in-Chief or any general or a committee of generals or Secretary of Defense--or any leader--can control and is in control of the unfolding war situation, and that somehow, someway, somewhere there was a better choice, a choice with no bad consequences, removed from repercussions, from chance, a perfect solution that all good people could agree upon is as false and ultimately suicidal idealism as could arise in a democracy in wartime. For further illustration, read Thucydides.